UFC 295 prediction, preview
UFC 295 prediction, preview

Table of Contents


As the brilliant lights of Madison Square Garden cast a radiant glow upon the iconic New York City skyline, fight enthusiasts from across the globe converge upon this hallowed venue. They come together in eager anticipation, poised to bear witness to an electrifying night of mixed martial arts action. UFC 295 beckons as a pay-per-view spectacle that promises to keep fans perched at the edge of their seats, while simultaneously reshaping the divisional landscapes for good.


Main Event: Jirí Procházka vs. Alex Pereira – A Battle for Light Heavyweight Supremacy

The evening’s headlining act presents an enthralling showdown between two of the most indomitable warriors within the light heavyweight division—Jirí Procházka and Alex Pereira. These two stoic and formidable fighters enter the Octagon with a single purpose: to determine who shall lead the charge in this weight class as we venture into the year 2024.

Procházka, a 31-year-old hailing from the Czech Republic, previously held the light heavyweight title, a championship he secured in a remarkable contest against Glover Teixeira in Singapore last summer. Alas, an untimely shoulder injury thwarted a much-anticipated rematch, leading to Procházka’s voluntary relinquishment of the title. Now, fully healed and brimming with determination, Procházka seeks to build upon his impressive 3-0 UFC record and an astounding 13-fight winning streak, with a remarkable 12 of those victories culminating in finishes. His return to the fray has been fervently awaited, and the mixed martial arts universe is buzzing with anticipation.

On the opposing side of the Octagon stands Alex Pereira, a fighter who has made an annual tradition of competing at Madison Square Garden every November. Pereira’s UFC debut at UFC 268 two years ago was met with resounding success. He went on to clinch the middleweight title from Israel Adesanya at UFC 281 the following year. Although he lost the title in a subsequent rematch, Pereira seamlessly transitioned to the light heavyweight division, earning a split decision victory over former champion Jan Błachowicz. The impending bout with Procházka promises to be a captivating clash of knockout artists, each wielding their own distinctive fighting style.

Procházka is renowned for his unpredictable and fluid approach, relying on instinct and a natural sense of timing to dissect his adversaries. In stark contrast, Pereira adopts a more structured and fundamental style, capable of unleashing devastating power at any given moment. The outcome of this contest could chart the course for the division in the upcoming year, with several other skilled fighters also vying for supremacy. The light heavyweight division remains a cauldron of excitement and unpredictability, and this bout could add a new chapter to its ever-evolving story.

Odds: Jiri Prochazka (+105) vs. Alex Pereira (-125) – for vacant light heavyweight title

Our Prediction: Prochazka is returning from a long hiatus while Pereira has won and lost the middleweight title in the process. Now with the 205-pound division as his new home, Pereira aims to cement himself as the champion and the odds favor him to do that. However, it will be a hard fight since both fighters are great strikers and it will come down to who can land their shots first. Having said that, we believe Prochazka can get the job done if he maintains composure, distance, and waits for his opportune moment.

Co-Main Event: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall – An Interim UFC Heavyweight Championship Clash

The co-main event sets the stage for a tantalizing confrontation, with the interim UFC heavyweight championship hanging in the balance. Sergei Pavlovich, the 31-year-old Russian powerhouse, has embarked on a remarkable journey over the past five years. Boasting a record that includes six victories, each punctuated by swift, first-round finishes, Pavlovich is a formidable force in the division. Four of these triumphs were achieved in a span of just 13 months, from March 2022 to April of the following year. With a combination of remarkable power and precision, Pavlovich, towering with an astounding 84-inch reach, casts a formidable shadow in the heavyweight ranks.

Tom Aspinall, his adversary, a 30-year-old hailing from England, is often regarded as one of the most well-rounded talents in the heavyweight division. Aspinall’s toolkit includes sharp boxing, solid wrestling, exceptional grappling, and remarkable footwork. He demonstrated his mettle with a rapid first-round triumph over Marcin Tybura in July, marking his first appearance since recovering from a knee injury sustained a year prior.

This clash between Pavlovich and Aspinall was seemingly destined, as their trajectories within the heavyweight division were bound to intersect. With an interim title at stake, the victor may very well set the stage for an even grander showdown in the future. It’s a confrontation of titans, and the outcome will undoubtedly shape the landscape of the heavyweight division in the forthcoming year.

Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini – Featherweight Fireworks

The final non-title bout on the main card ignites a featherweight showdown between Diego Lopes and Pat Sabatini. Lopes has emerged as a compelling story in the UFC this year, not only as a fighter but also as a coach, instrumental in guiding Alexa Grasso to an upset victory over Valentina Shevchenko in March and her subsequent title defense at Noche UFC. Lopes showcased his prowess in his own outings, rebounding from a closely contested decision loss to the unbeaten Russian Movsar Evloev in May with a swift 98-second submission victory over Gavin Tucker in August.

Sabatini, who celebrates his 33rd birthday just days ahead of this bout, has established himself as a formidable presence within the featherweight division. With a 5-1 record within the UFC, including a dominant performance in his most recent outing—an arm-triangle choke finish in the second round against Lucas Almeida in June—Sabatini signifies a clash of contrasting ground styles. Lopes is known for his aggressive and dynamic approach, consistently hunting for openings and submission opportunities. In contrast, Sabatini adopts a more methodical strategy, focused on creating and capitalizing on those openings. Both fighters teeter on the brink of breaking into the division’s top 15, making this encounter pivotal in their quests for recognition.

Jessica Andrade vs. Mackenzie Dern – Strawweight Showdown

In a pivotal matchup on the main card, two top 10 strawweights, Jessica Andrade and Mackenzie Dern, collide. Andrade, a former champion, steps into her fifth bout of the year, yearning to break free from a three-fight losing streak. The Brazilian fighter initiated the year with a commanding triumph at flyweight against Lauren Murphy but subsequently endured stoppage losses to Erin Blanchfield, Yan Xiaonan, and Tatiana Suarez.

Dern, on the other hand, enters the contest fresh from a unanimous decision victory over Angela Hill in May. The 30-year-old fighter has embarked on a journey of self-improvement, tallying a 2-2 record in her last four outings, marked by defeats to opponents ranked higher and victories over those situated lower in the pecking order. Dern’s forte lies in her grappling skills, with her ability to take the fight to the canvas representing a potent weapon.

This bout holds significant weight for both competitors. Andrade aims to break the shackles of her losing streak and reassert her standing as a contender in the 115-pound division, while Dern endeavors to secure a resounding victory that firmly solidifies her status as a top contender in the division.

Matt Frevola vs. Benoît Saint Denis – A Lightweight Firestarter

The main card sets ablaze with an explosive clash in the lightweight division, featuring local fan-favorite Matt Frevola against the rising French talent, Benoît Saint Denis. Frevola has experienced a stellar 22 months, capturing three consecutive first-round stoppage victories that have propelled him into the top 15. After culminating his 2022 campaign with a knockout triumph over Ottman Azaitar at MSG in November, Frevola secured the most significant victory of his career with a win over Drew Dober at UFC 288 in May.

Saint Denis, equally impressive, boasts a flawless record of 4-0 with four finishes since transitioning to the lightweight division following a debut loss at welterweight. The 27-year-old athlete has already notched stoppage victories over Ismael Bonfim and Thiago Moises in 2023, and he seeks to add a win over Frevola to conclude the year. This contest serves as an explosive opening act for the pay-per-view main card, promising an uninterrupted cascade of action. The fervent support from the home crowd of Long Island’s native Frevola will undoubtedly amplify the excitement within Madison Square Garden.

Preliminary Card – A Glimpse of Future Stars in the Making

The preliminary card brims with riveting matchups, each featuring fighters eager to etch their names into the annals of UFC history.

Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa – A Flyweight Showdown: The flyweight division is on the upswing, and both Erceg and Costa are eager to establish their positions in the rankings as they approach 2024.

Tabatha Ricci vs. Loopy Godinez – Surging Strawweights: Ricci and Godinez, both surging strawweights, bring distinct fighting styles to the Octagon, with their eyes set on maintaining their momentum and potentially claiming a spot within the division’s rankings.

Nazim Sadykhov vs. Viacheslav Borshchev – A Lightweight Battle: Sadykhov, a member of Dana White’s Contender Series Class of ’22, seeks to extend his nine-fight winning streak in front of a partisan crowd, while Borshchev aims to put an end to his momentum and secure his second consecutive UFC victory.

Dennis Buzukja vs. Jamall Emmers – Featherweight Showdown: Buzukja and Emmers face off in a featherweight contest, each aspiring to showcase their mettle and earn their place within a fiercely competitive division.

Jared Gordon vs. Mark Madsen – Veteran Lightweights: A clash between veteran lightweights, Gordon and Madsen are both determined to rise through the rankings and rejuvenate their careers with a pivotal victory.

John Castaneda vs. Kyung Ho Kang – A Catchweight Battle: Castañeda and Kang square off in a catchweight bout, with both fighters intent on making a resounding statement and climbing the ranks within their respective divisions.

Joshua Van vs. Kevin Borjas – A Battle of Young Guns: Van and Borjas, both promising young talents, aim to secure their positions in the UFC and bolster their reputations within the organization.

UFC 295 Main Card Odds

  • Jiri Prochazka (+105) vs. Alex Pereira (-125) – for vacant light heavyweight title
  • Sergei Pavlovich (+100) vs. Tom Aspinall (-120) – for interim heavyweight title
  • Jessica Andrade (+160) vs. Mackenzie Dern (-190)
  • Matt Frevola (+175) vs. Benoit Saint-Denis (-190)
  • Diego Lopes (+115) vs. Pat Sabatini (-135)

UFC 295 Preliminary Card Odds

  • Loopy Godinez (-140) vs. Tabatha Ricci (+120)
  • Viacheslav Borshchev (+125) vs. Nazim Sadykhov (-150)
  • Alessandro Costa (+115) vs. Stephen Erceg (-135)
  • Jared Gordon (-175) vs. Mark Madsen (+145)
  • John Castaneda (-155) vs. Kyung Ho Kang (+130)
  • Kevin Borjas (+190) vs. Joshua Van (-235)
  • Dennis Buzukja (+250) vs. Jamall Emmers (-310)

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